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2006: A Whole New Year
By Todd Wasserman
Reprinted from Brandweek Magazine; January 2, 2006
Making predictions about anything is a fool’s errand, which got me
wondering why I was put in charge of it this year. But, with a firm
grasp of industry trends and a little imagination (plus a Magic 8-Ball,
a Ouija Board and a piece of yarn that a cat had spit up), I was able to
divine some slam-dunk predictions for the coming year that would make
Kreskin weep. Here goes:
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The 30-Second Spot will finally die: After
many predictions of its demise, to the point where the “30-second spot
is dead” became conventional wisdom in the marketing/advertising
industry, the 30-Second Spot will succumb this year from prostate
cancer. Surrounded by family and friends and his rabbi, it will be a
peaceful passing. The funeral will be attended by the 60-Second Spot,
the Radio Ad, and the Bumper. The Infomercial, which hadn’t been on
speaking terms with the 30-Second Spot for years because of a dispute
over gambling debts, will stay home.
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A paradigm will be created, then destroyed, then
brought back again. A new paradigm will entreat the marketing
industry to see a new possibility, a new way of reaching customers that
is non-intrusive and allows for two-way communication. But later in the
year, marketers will realize that the paradigm was shaky to begin with
and, in a fit of pique, will destroy it. They will then come up with a
new paradigm that isn’t as catchy as the last one, and by December will
elect to bring it back, just for laughs.
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Blogs will change everything. For consumers,
blogs will change the way you make soup, the way to de-worm your dog and
the way you look at your reflection in a store window. You name it. For
marketers, the blogosphere in 2006 will prompt them to think very
seriously and then somewhat less seriously, and finally to think even
more seriously than the first time about their business models.
Eventually, blogs will force marketers to realign their prejudices wand
ways of doing business until they are doing the exact same thing, except
they’ll be spending more time reading blogs.
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The consumer will be boss. With more power,
the consumer in 2006 will rightly taker her place as the boss and will
begin having and affair with an intern, laying off staff and developing
a drinking problem. Marketers, aghast at the consumer’s behavior, will
talk behind her back, but not confront the consumer directly, instead
choosing passive-aggressive ways to annoy her.
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The FDA will crack down on illegal drug
marketing. Having taken on direct-to-consumer pharmaceutical ads,
the FDA will instead shift its focus to “word-of-mouth” advertising for
local pot, mushroom and cocaine dealers. The action, however, will be
challenged by the emerging word-of-mouth marketing industry, the
American Civil Liberties Union as well as Ben and Jerry.
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Advertising “one-stop shops” will thrive. As
marketers are pressed to find ways to reach consumers, advertising
holding companies like WPP and Interpublic will continue to evolve into
“one-stop shops” for everything from advertising to guerilla marketing
to package design. Taking the idea a step further, they also will begin
stocking groceries and offering oil changes and hairstyling for
marketers, all in an attempt to meet their growing demands.
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The Hispanic consumer will thrive. After
years of treating the Hispanic segment as an afterthought addressed by
stereotypical ads showing groups of young Latinos dancing and partying
in the streets, marketers will shift more money to addressing the demo
with a much greater amount of TV, print and online ads featuring
stereotypical images of young Latinos dancing and partying in the
streets.
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Hollywood will abandon “The Window.” As the
window between a theatrical and a DVD release continues to shorten, one
studio will elect to do away altogether with the window and refuse to
release any films in any form. The idea, trumpeted by a famous
billionaire, will bankrupt the studio, but others will eventually follow
suit, finding the move has a dramatic effect on reducing costly
overhead.
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Marketers will continue to fear Google. As
the search engine delves into more lines of business and
acquires more
clout in 2006, marketers will be terrified of Google, but will still
find the name kind of funny to say out loud.
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